胖胖
发布日期：2025-12-18 01:07 点击次数：64
中俄联合巡航透视东北亚变局：台湾议题下的多方博弈与战略平衡
一、东北亚地缘棋盘：中俄联合巡航的背景与战略意涵
东北亚地区因其复杂的历史纠葛、密集的大国利益与敏感的安全格局，始终是全球地缘政治的 “风暴眼” 之一。在中美战略竞争升级、朝鲜半岛局势暗流涌动、台海问题持续升温的多重背景下，中俄两国于东海及西太平洋上空开展的联合空中巡航，绝非孤立的军事行动，而是对区域安全秩序的一次深度 “校准”，更是对外部势力干涉地区事务的明确回应。
Northeast Asia, with its complex historical entanglements, dense great power interests, and sensitive security structure, has always been one of the "storm centers" of global geopolitics, Against the backdrop of escalating Sino-US strategic competition, undercurrents on the Korean Peninsula, and the rising tension across the Taiwan Strait, the joint air cruise conducted by China and Russia over the East China Sea and the Western Pacific is by no means an isolated military operation, It is a profound "calibration" of the regional security order and a clear response to external forces interfering in regional affairs,
展开剩余96%（一）区域安全架构的失衡与中俄协作的必然性
冷战结束后，东北亚形成了以美国为核心的 “同盟体系” 与中俄主导的 “多边安全对话” 并存的二元结构。美国通过美日、美韩同盟构建起军事威慑网络，在日本部署约 5,4 万驻军，在韩国部署 2,8 万驻军，并常态化开展联合军演，形成对中俄的 “第一岛链” 封锁。而随着美国将 “印太战略” 落地深化，其在东北亚的军事存在进一步强化 ——2024 年美日联合军演规模较上年扩大 30%，新增 “离岛防卫” 科目直指西南诸岛，针对性不言而喻。
After the end of the Cold War, Northeast Asia formed a dual structure consisting of the "alliance system" centered on the United States and the "multilateral security dialogue" led by China and Russia, The United States has built a military deterrence network through the US-Japan and US-ROK alliances, stationing approximately 54,000 troops in Japan and 28,000 troops in South Korea, and conducting regular joint military exercises, forming a "first island chain" blockade against China and Russia, With the United States deepening the implementation of its "Indo-Pacific Strategy", its military presence in Northeast Asia has been further strengthened - the scale of the 2024 US-Japan joint military exercise has expanded by 30% compared with the previous year, with the addition of the "remote island defense" subject directly targeting the Southwest Islands, and the targeting is self-evident,
在此背景下，中俄两国的安全协作从 “战略协作伙伴关系” 向 “新时代全面战略协作伙伴关系” 升级，联合军事行动成为维护区域平衡的重要抓手。2022 年以来，中俄已开展 12 次联合空中巡航、8 次海上联合演习，形成 “空海联动” 的常态化协作模式。军事专家指出，这种协作并非针对第三方的 “军事同盟”，而是基于共同安全利益的 “非结盟合作”，旨在对冲美国主导的同盟体系带来的安全压力，重建东北亚的战略平衡。
Against this backdrop, the security cooperation between China and Russia has upgraded from a "strategic cooperative partnership" to a "comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership for a new era", and joint military operations have become an important starting point for maintaining regional balance, Since 2022, China and Russia have conducted 12 joint air cruises and 8 joint maritime exercises, forming a normalized "air-sea linkage" cooperation model, Military experts point out that this cooperation is not a "military alliance" targeting a third party, but a "non-aligned cooperation" based on common security interests, aiming to counter the security pressure brought by the US-led alliance system and rebuild the strategic balance in Northeast Asia,
（二）台海议题的外溢效应：中日博弈的新焦点
台湾问题作为中国核心利益中的核心，始终是影响中美、中日关系的 “定海神针”。而近年来，日本在台湾问题上的立场逐渐突破 “战略模糊”，从 “幕后观望” 转向 “台前介入”。2023 年日本《国家安全保障战略》首次将台湾列为 “重要关切事项”，2024 年美日 “2+2” 会谈中，双方共同提及 “台湾海峡和平稳定的重要性”，这些举动都被视为日本试图将台湾问题 “国际化” 的信号。
The Taiwan issue, as the core of China's core interests, has always been the "anchor" affecting China-US and China-Japan relations, In recent years, Japan's stance on the Taiwan issue has gradually broken through "strategic ambiguity", shifting from "behind-the-scenes observation" to "on-stage intervention", Japan's 2023 "National Security Strategy" listed Taiwan as an "important concern" for the first time, In the 2024 US-Japan "2+2" talks, the two sides jointly mentioned "the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait", These moves are regarded as signals that Japan is trying to "internationalize" the Taiwan issue,
日本首相高市早苗在国会的发言，更是将这种介入意图推向高潮。“集体自卫权” 的提及直接触碰了中国的红线 —— 根据日本和平宪法第九条，日本放弃战争作为国家主权，禁止行使集体自卫权。而高市早苗的表述实质上是为修改和平宪法、扩大军事行动权限寻找借口，其将台湾问题与日本安全捆绑的逻辑，不仅违反国际法中 “不干涉内政” 原则，更违背了《中日联合声明》中 “日本政府承认中华人民共和国政府是代表全中国的唯一合法政府，台湾是中国领土不可分割的一部分” 的核心承诺。
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's speech in the Diet pushed this intervention intention to a climax, The mention of "collective self-defense right" directly touched China's red line - according to Article 9 of Japan's Peace Constitution, Japan renounces war as a national sovereignty and prohibits the exercise of collective self-defense right, Takaichi's statement is essentially an excuse to revise the Peace Constitution and expand the scope of military operations, Her logic of linking the Taiwan issue with Japan's security not only violates the principle of "non-interference in internal affairs" in international law, but also violates the core commitment in the "Sino-Japanese Joint Statement" that "the Government of Japan recognizes the Government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government representing the whole of China, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory",
正是在这样的紧张背景下，中俄选择在东海及西太平洋开展联合巡航，其战略意图清晰可见：一方面通过军事行动展示中俄在核心利益问题上的协同立场，对日本的危险言论形成震慑；另一方面通过国际空域的合法巡航，彰显维护区域安全秩序的主导权，打破美国及其盟友对 “安全定义权” 的垄断。
It is against this tense backdrop that China and Russia have chosen to conduct joint cruises over the East China Sea and the Western Pacific, Their strategic intentions are clear: on the one hand, they show the coordinated stance of China and Russia on core interest issues through military operations, deterring Japan's dangerous remarks; on the other hand, they demonstrate the dominance in maintaining the regional security order through legal cruises in international airspace, breaking the monopoly of the United States and its allies on the "right to define security",
二、联合巡航全景：路线、机型与各方反应的深度解析
2024 年 X 月 X 日，中俄联合空中巡航的实施，如同投入东北亚地缘池中的一颗石子，激起层层涟漪。日本防卫省公布的飞行轨迹图、各国战机的紧急升空、外交渠道的密集沟通，共同构成了一幅生动的 “大国博弈浮世绘”。要理解这一事件的深层影响，就必须从巡航的细节入手，拆解其技术特点与政治意涵。
On X/X/2024, the implementation of the China-Russia joint air cruise was like a stone thrown into the geopolitical pool of Northeast Asia, causing ripples, The flight trajectory map released by Japan's Ministry of Defense, the emergency takeoff of warplanes from various countries, and the intensive communication through diplomatic channels together form a vivid "picture of great power games", To understand the in-depth impact of this incident, it is necessary to start from the details of the cruise and disassemble its technical characteristics and political implications,
（一）巡航路线：“贴近东京” 背后的战略考量
日本防卫省在巡航结束后第一时间公布的轨迹图显示，此次联合巡航分为三个阶段：第一阶段，俄罗斯空天军 2 架图 - 95MS 战略轰炸机从位于远东的阿穆尔州空军基地起飞，沿日本海西岸南下，途经对马海峡西侧空域；第二阶段，在中国东海防空识别区边缘，与中国空军 2 架轰 - 6K 战略轰炸机会合，形成 “双机编队 + 双机护航” 的四机体系；第三阶段，四国编队向东南方向飞行，经琉球群岛北部空域进入西太平洋，最南抵达东京东南约 300 公里的国际空域，随后沿原路线折返。
The trajectory map released by Japan's Ministry of Defense immediately after the cruise showed that the joint cruise was divided into three phases: in the first phase, 2 Tu-95MS strategic bombers of the Russian Aerospace Forces took off from the air base in Amur Oblast in the Far East, flew south along the west coast of the Sea of Japan, and passed through the airspace west of the Tsushima Strait; in the second phase, on the edge of China's East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone, they joined 2 H-6K strategic bombers of the Chinese Air Force, forming a four-aircraft system of "two aircraft formation + two aircraft escort"; in the third phase, the four-aircraft formation flew southeast, entered the Western Pacific via the airspace north of the Ryukyu Islands, reached the international airspace about 300 kilometers southeast of Tokyo at the southernmost point, and then turned back along the original route,
这一路线的选择极具深意。从地理上看，东京东南 300 公里空域处于日本 “本土防空圈” 的外围边缘，既属于国际法认可的国际空域，又能对日本政治中心形成 “可视化威慑”。军事专家分析，300 公里的距离恰好处于现代战略轰炸机的巡航导弹打击半径内（图 - 95MS 可携带 Kh-55 巡航导弹，射程达 2500 公里；轰 - 6K 可携带长剑 - 20 巡航导弹，射程达 1500 公里），这种 “抵近而不闯入” 的姿态，既避免了直接军事冲突，又充分传递了战略压力。
The choice of this route is of great significance, Geographically, the airspace 300 kilometers southeast of Tokyo is on the outer edge of Japan's "homeland air defense circle", which is not only an international airspace recognized by international law, but also can form a "visual deterrence" to Japan's political center, Military experts analyzed that the distance of 300 kilometers is exactly within the strike radius of cruise missiles of modern strategic bombers (the Tu-95MS can carry Kh-55 cruise missiles with a range of 2,500 kilometers; the H-6K can carry Changjian-20 cruise missiles with a range of 1,500 kilometers), This posture of "approaching but not intruding" not only avoids direct military conflicts, but also fully transmits strategic pressure,
从政治层面看，路线特意途经琉球群岛北部空域，暗含对日本在西南诸岛强化军事部署的回应。近年来，日本在冲绳县部署了陆上自卫队第 15 旅团，在宫古岛、石垣岛部署了 12 式岸舰导弹系统，试图构建 “西南岛屿防御链”。中俄编队的此次飞行，相当于从 “防御链” 的缝隙中穿行而过，用实际行动证明该链条的 “有效性不足”，对日本的军事部署形成直接反制。
Politically, the route deliberately passed through the airspace north of the Ryukyu Islands, implicitly responding to Japan's strengthening of military deployment in the Southwest Islands, In recent years, Japan has deployed the 15th Brigade of the Ground Self-Defense Force in Okinawa Prefecture, and the Type 12 shore-based anti-ship missile system on Miyako Island and Ishigaki Island, trying to build a "Southwest Islands defense chain", The flight of the China-Russia formation this time is equivalent to passing through the gaps of the "defense chain", proving the "insufficiency of effectiveness" of the chain with practical actions and forming a direct countermeasure to Japan's military deployment,
（二）参演机型：战略轰炸机的 “力量展示”
此次联合巡航中，中俄双方均派出了各自的核心战略轰炸机型号，其机型选择本身就是一种 “无声的宣言”。俄罗斯的图 - 95MS 是一款诞生于冷战时期的远程战略轰炸机，但经过多次现代化改装，已具备携带巡航导弹、精确制导炸弹的能力，最大航程可达 15000 公里，具备 “全球到达、全球打击” 的能力。该机型曾多次参与俄罗斯在叙利亚的军事行动，实战经验丰富，其此次参演传递出 “俄罗斯在亚太地区仍具备强大战略投射能力” 的信号。
In this joint cruise, both China and Russia dispatched their core strategic bomber models, and the choice of models itself is a "silent declaration", Russia's Tu-95MS is a long-range strategic bomber born during the Cold War, but after many modern modifications, it has the ability to carry cruise missiles and precision-guided bombs, with a maximum range of 15,000 kilometers, and has the ability of "global reach and global strike", This model has participated in Russia's military operations in Syria many times and has rich combat experience, Its participation in this cruise conveys the signal that "Russia still has strong strategic projection capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region",
中国的轰 - 6K 则是在轰 - 6 基础上改进的新型战略轰炸机，被军迷称为 “战神”。该机换装了新型涡扇发动机，航程提升至 8000 公里以上，可携带 6 枚长剑 - 20 巡航导弹或鹰击 - 12 反舰导弹，具备对陆、对海精确打击能力。近年来，轰 - 6K 常态化出现在西太平洋、南海等海域，是中国 “战略空军” 建设的标志性装备。此次与图 - 95MS 协同飞行，不仅展示了中俄战机的 interoperability（互操作性），更体现了两国在战略打击力量上的 “优势互补”—— 俄罗斯的全球航程与中国的区域精确打击能力相结合，形成了覆盖东北亚的立体威慑网络。
China's H-6K is a new type of strategic bomber improved on the basis of the H-6, known as the "God of War" by military fans, The aircraft has been refitted with a new turbofan engine, with a range increased to more than 8,000 kilometers, It can carry 6 Changjian-20 cruise missiles or YJ-12 anti-ship missiles, and has precision strike capabilities on land and sea, In recent years, the H-6K has regularly appeared in waters such as the Western Pacific and the South China Sea, and is a landmark equipment for China's "strategic air force" construction, The coordinated flight with the Tu-95MS this time not only shows the interoperability of Chinese and Russian warplanes, but also reflects the "complementary advantages" of the two countries in strategic strike forces - the combination of Russia's global range and China's regional precision strike capabilities forms a three-dimensional deterrence network covering Northeast Asia,
此外，中俄双方还分别派出了苏 - 35、歼 - 16 等先进战斗机提供护航，形成 “战略轰炸机 + 战斗机” 的经典作战编组。这种编组模式在现代空战中具有重要意义：战斗机负责清除空中威胁、开辟安全通道，轰炸机则可专注于战略打击任务，充分发挥各自作战效能。日本航空自卫队派出的 F-15J 战斗机虽试图靠近侦察，但在中俄护航战机的警戒拦截下，始终无法进入有效侦察范围，只能在外侧伴飞，这从侧面印证了中俄编队的 “空中控制能力”。
In addition, China and Russia also dispatched advanced fighter jets such as Su-35 and J-16 to provide escort, forming a classic combat formation of "strategic bombers + fighter jets", This formation model is of great significance in modern air combat: fighter jets are responsible for eliminating air threats and opening up safe channels, while bombers can focus on strategic strike missions, giving full play to their respective combat effectiveness, Although the F-15J fighter jets dispatched by the Japan Air Self-Defense Force tried to approach for reconnaissance, they were always unable to enter the effective reconnaissance range under the warning and interception of Chinese and Russian escort fighters, and could only fly alongside outside, This confirms the "air control capability" of the China-Russia formation from the side,
（三）各方反应：从军事应对到外交博弈
面对中俄联合巡航，东北亚各方的反应呈现出明显的 “层级差异”，既反映了各自的安全关切，也暴露了深层的战略矛盾。
In the face of the China-Russia joint cruise, the reactions of various parties in Northeast Asia showed obvious "hierarchical differences", which not only reflected their respective security concerns, but also exposed deep-seated strategic contradictions,
日本的反应最为激烈，呈现 “军事紧急响应 + 政治高调谴责” 的双重姿态。军事上，东南亚地理知识点日本航空自卫队从那霸、百里等基地紧急出动 12 架 F-15J 战斗机、4 架 E-2C 预警机，实施 “全程跟踪监视”，并启动了位于宫古岛的雷达监测站，对中俄编队的通信信号进行截获分析。日本防卫省在巡航期间每 2 小时发布一次 “紧急事态通报”，向内阁与国会实时更新动态。政治上，防卫大臣小泉进次郎在 X（社交平台名称）上发文称：“中俄联合巡航是对日本主权的间接挑战，其飞行路线刻意靠近东京，具有明显的示威性质，严重影响地区安全稳定。” 首相高市早苗则在官邸召开紧急安保会议，要求外务省通过驻中俄大使馆提出 “强烈抗议”。
Japan's reaction was the most intense, showing a dual posture of "emergency military response + high-profile political condemnation", Militarily, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force urgently dispatched 12 F-15J fighter jets and 4 E-2C early warning aircraft from bases such as Naha and Hyakuri to implement "full-course tracking and surveillance", and activated the radar monitoring station on Miyako Island to intercept and analyze the communication signals of the China-Russia formation, Japan's Ministry of Defense issued an "emergency situation bulletin" every 2 hours during the cruise, updating the dynamics in real time to the cabinet and the Diet, Politically, Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi posted on X (social platform name): "The China-Russia joint cruise is an indirect challenge to Japan's sovereignty, Its flight route deliberately approaches Tokyo, has an obvious demonstrative nature, and seriously affects regional security and stability," Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi held an emergency security meeting at the Prime Minister's Office, asking the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to lodge a "strong protest" through embassies in China and Russia,
韩国的反应则相对克制，采取 “有限军事应对 + 中立外交表态” 的策略。韩国空军出动 2 架 KF-16 战斗机对途经济州岛附近空域的中俄编队进行短暂监视，但未实施伴飞跟踪。韩国外交部发言人在例行记者会上表示：“韩国政府密切关注东北亚地区的军事动态，希望相关国家通过对话解决分歧，避免局势升级。” 这种克制态度源于韩国的 “双重安全困境”—— 一方面需维护美韩同盟，配合美国的亚太战略；另一方面与中国、俄罗斯存在密切的经济联系，不愿因军事对抗影响自身利益。数据显示，2024 年韩国对华贸易额占其外贸总额的 22%，对俄能源进口占其进口总量的 15%，经济利益的绑定使其在大国博弈中不得不保持谨慎。
South Korea's reaction was relatively restrained, adopting a strategy of "limited military response + neutral diplomatic statement", The South Korean Air Force dispatched 2 KF-16 fighter jets to briefly monitor the China-Russia formation passing through the airspace near Jeju Island, but did not conduct accompanying tracking, A spokesman for the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs said at a regular press conference: "The South Korean government closely monitors military developments in Northeast Asia and hopes that relevant countries will resolve differences through dialogue and avoid escalation of the situation," This restrained attitude stems from South Korea's "dual security dilemma" - on the one hand, it needs to maintain the US-ROK alliance and cooperate with the US Asia-Pacific strategy; on the other hand, it has close economic ties with China and Russia and is unwilling to affect its own interests due to military confrontation, Data shows that in 2024, South Korea's trade volume with China accounted for 22% of its total foreign trade, and its energy imports from Russia accounted for 15% of its total imports, The binding of economic interests makes it have to be cautious in the game of great powers,
美国的反应则体现了 “战略模糊” 的典型特征。五角大楼发言人仅表示 “注意到中俄联合巡航的情况，将继续关注东北亚地区的安全局势”，未对巡航本身作出评价。而美国第七舰队虽派出 “里根” 号航母战斗群向琉球群岛方向移动，但未进入中俄巡航空域附近。这种 “口头关注 + 军事威慑” 的组合，既向盟友日本展示了 “安全承诺”，又避免与中俄发生直接军事接触，符合美国 “离岸平衡” 的传统战略逻辑。
The US reaction reflected the typical characteristics of "strategic ambiguity", A Pentagon spokesman only said that "it has noticed the situation of the China-Russia joint cruise and will continue to pay attention to the security situation in Northeast Asia", without evaluating the cruise itself, Although the US 7th Fleet dispatched the "Ronald Reagan" aircraft carrier strike group to move towards the Ryukyu Islands, it did not enter the vicinity of the China-Russia cruise airspace, This combination of "verbal attention + military deterrence" not only shows "security commitments" to its ally Japan, but also avoids direct military contact with China and Russia, which is in line with the traditional strategic logic of the US "offshore balancing",
三、导火索：高市早苗的 “台湾言论” 与中日关系的急剧恶化
中俄联合巡航之所以引发如此强烈的反响，其直接导火索是日本首相高市早苗在国会关于台湾问题的言论。这一言论不仅打破了中日建交以来在台湾问题上的 “默契平衡”，更引发了一系列连锁反应，使本就脆弱的中日关系陷入 “建交以来最严重的危机”。
The reason why the China-Russia joint cruise triggered such a strong response is that the direct fuse was Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks on the Taiwan issue in the Diet, These remarks not only broke the "tacit balance" on the Taiwan issue since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Japan, but also triggered a series of chain reactions, putting the already fragile China-Japan relations into the "most serious crisis since the establishment of diplomatic relations",
（一）言论的出台：政治算计与战略误判
高市早苗的言论并非偶然，而是其 “强硬保守” 政治立场的集中体现，背后隐藏着复杂的政治算计。作为日本自民党中的 “鹰派” 代表，高市早苗长期主张 “修改和平宪法”“强化日美同盟”“应对中国威胁”，其政治生涯始终与 “保守主义” 标签紧密相连。2024 年上台后，面对党内 “派阀斗争” 与 “支持率低迷” 的双重压力（上台初期支持率仅为 32%），她急需通过 “强硬外交” 树立威信，巩固自身权力基础。
Takaichi's remarks were not accidental, but a concentrated expression of her "hard-line conservative" political stance, with complex political calculations hidden behind them, As a representative of the "hawkish" faction in Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, Takaichi has long advocated "revising the Peace Constitution", "strengthening the Japan-US alliance", and "responding to the China threat", and her political career has always been closely linked;www.sz.gov.cn.kbo0.cn; to the label;www.sz.gov.cn.jav4.cn; of "conservatism", After;www.sz.gov.cn.ixk1.cn; taking office in 2024,;www.sz.gov.cn.frt2.cn; facing the dual pressures;www.sz.gov.cn.hwq8.cn; of "factional struggles;www.sz.gov.cn.yzbe5.com; within the;www.sz.gov.cn.esn9.cn; party";www.sz.gov.cn.mlianz.com; and "low approval ratings" (the approval;www.sz.gov.cn.cxz3.cn; rating was;www.sz.gov.cn.mlians.com; only 32% at the beginning of her term), she urgently needed to establish authority through "hard-line diplomacy" and consolidate her power base,
在台湾问题上发声，成为她的 “最优解”。一方面，通过将台湾问题与日本安全挂钩，可向美国展示 “日本在印太战略中的核心价值”，争取美国对其修宪计划的支持；另一方面，可迎合国内保守派选民的情绪，提升自身在自民党内的话语权。然而，高市早苗显然低估了中国在台湾问题上的 “底线强度”，误判了 “中美战略竞争” 背景下的区域安全格局 —— 她认为美国会为了维护美日同盟而支持其言论，但忽略了美国在 “对华贸易” 与 “区域稳定” 上的利益诉求，最终导致 “偷鸡不成蚀把米” 的局面。
Speaking out on the Taiwan issue has become her "optimal solution", On the one hand, by linking the Taiwan issue with Japan's security, she can show the United States the "core value of Japan in the Indo-Pacific Strategy" and strive for US support for her constitutional revision plan; on the other hand, she can cater to the emotions of conservative voters in the country and enhance her voice in the Liberal Democratic Party, However, Takaichi obviously underestimated the "bottom line strength" of China on the Taiwan issue and misjudged the regional security pattern under the background of "Sino-US strategic competition" - she believed that the United States would support her remarks to maintain the Japan-US alliance, but ignored the US interest demands in "Sino-US trade" and "regional stability", eventually leading to a situation of "losing more than gaining",
从言论内容来看，其核心危险点在于三点：一是将台湾问题 “国际化”，违背《中日联合声明》的核心原则；二是提及 “集体自卫权”，为日本军事力量走出国门寻找借口，突破和平宪法的束缚；三是将中国内政问题与日本安全直接捆绑，实质上是对中国主权的公然挑衅。中国外交部副部长乐玉成在紧急召见日本驻华大使垂秀夫时明确指出：“高市首相的言论是对历史的背叛、对国际法的践踏、对中国核心利益的严重侵犯，性质极其恶劣。”
From the perspective of the content of the remarks, the core dangers lie in three points: first, "internationalizing" the Taiwan issue, violating the core principles of the "Sino-Japanese Joint Statement"; second, mentioning the "collective self-defense right", looking for excuses for Japan's military forces to go abroad and breaking through the constraints of the Peace Constitution; third, directly linking China's internal affairs with Japan's security, which is essentially an open provocation to China's sovereignty, Le Yucheng, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of China, clearly pointed out when urgently summoning Japanese Ambassador to China Hideo Tarui: "Prime Minister Takaichi's remarks are a betrayal of history, a trampling on international law, and a serious violation of China's core interests, with extremely bad nature,"
（二）中国的反制：从外交抗议到经济施压
面对日本的挑衅，中国迅速采取了 “多层次、立体化” 的反制措施，展现了 “维护核心利益绝不妥协” 的坚定立场。这些措施涵盖外交、经济、舆论等多个领域，形成了 “组合拳” 效应，使日本深刻感受到 “触碰红线” 的代价。
In the face of Japan's provocation, China quickly adopted "multi-level and three-dimensional" countermeasures, showing a firm stance of "never compromising in safeguarding core interests", These measures cover diplomacy, economy, public opinion and other fields, forming a "combined punch" effect, making Japan deeply feel the price of "touching the red line",
外交层面，中国宣布暂停与日本的三项重要机制：一是中日高层经济对话（该对话始于 2007 年，是协调两国经济合作的核心平台）；二是中日安全对话（两国国防部门的最高级别沟通渠道）；三是中日人文交流机制（涵盖教育、文化、青年等领域的合作项目）。同时，中国召回了驻日本大使孔铉佑，进行 “磋商协调”，这是自 2012 年钓鱼岛危机以来中国首次召回驻日大使，释放出强烈的抗议信号。
Diplomatically, China announced the suspension of three important mechanisms with Japan: first, the China-Japan High-Level Economic Dialogue (which started in 2007 and is the core platform for coordinating economic cooperation between the two countries); second, the China-Japan Security Dialogue (the highest-level communication channel between the defense departments of the two countries); third, the China-Japan People-to-People Exchange Mechanism (covering cooperation projects in education, culture, youth and other fields), At the same time, China recalled its Ambassador to Japan Kong Xuanyou for "consultation and coordination", This is the first time China has recalled its ambassador to Japan since the 2012 Diaoyu Island crisis, sending a strong protest signal,
经济层面，中国采取了 “精准打击、循序渐进” 的施压策略。针对日本对华出口的核心产业，中国加强了海关检验检疫力度 —— 对日本汽车零部件实施 “100% 开箱查验”，导致部分零部件企业交货延迟；对日本半导体材料（如光刻胶、高纯度硅）的进口审批流程进行优化调整，延长了审批周期。这些措施直接影响了日本企业的生产经营：丰田汽车在华工厂因零部件短缺被迫减产 10%，信越化学的光刻胶对华出口量下降 30%。日本经济产业省发布的月度报告显示，2024 年 X 月日本对华出口同比下降 18,7%，其中汽车产业出口下降 25,3%，半导体产业下降 22,1%。
Economically, China has adopted a "precision strike, gradual progress" pressure strategy, For Japan's core industries exporting to China, China has strengthened customs inspection and quarantine - implementing "100% unpacking inspection" on Japanese auto parts, causing delivery delays for some parts enterprises; optimizing and adjusting the import approval process for Japanese semiconductor materials (such as photoresist and high-purity silicon), extending the approval cycle, These measures have directly affected the production and operation of Japanese enterprises: Toyota's factories in China were forced to cut production by 10% due to a shortage of parts, and Shin-Etsu Chemical's photoresist exports to China dropped by 30%, The monthly report released by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry shows that Japan's exports to China fell by 18,7% year-on-year in X 2024, among which exports of the automobile industry fell by 25,3% and the semiconductor industry by 22,1%,
舆论层面，中国官方媒体与民间舆论形成了 “同频共振” 的反击态势。《人民日报》发表评论员文章《警惕日本右翼的危险动向》，指出高市早苗的言论是 “日本军国主义死灰复燃的信号”；央视新闻制作专题节目《历史的镜鉴：日本的和平承诺何在》，回顾了中日建交以来日本在台湾问题上的立场演变。同时，中国各地民众自发组织抗议活动，在日本驻华使领馆外举行和平示威，呼吁日本 “尊重历史、停止挑衅”。这些舆论行动不仅凝聚了国内共识，也向国际社会揭露了日本的危险意图。
In terms of public opinion, China's official media and civil public opinion have formed a counterattack posture of "same-frequency resonance", People's Daily published a commentator article "Be Alert to the Dangerous Trends of Japanese Right-Wingers", pointing out that Takaichi's remarks are "a signal of the resurgence of Japanese militarism"; CCTV News produced a special program "Mirror of History: Where is Japan's Peace Commitment", reviewing the evolution of Japan's stance on the Taiwan issue since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Japan, At the same time, people from all over China spontaneously organized protest activities, held peaceful demonstrations outside Japanese embassies and consulates in China, and called on Japan to "respect history and stop provocation", These public opinion actions not only consolidated domestic consensus, but also exposed Japan's dangerous intentions to the international community,
（三）日本的内部困境：政治丑闻与经济压力的双重夹击
高市早苗的言论不仅引发了外部危机，也加剧了日本的内部矛盾。在政治层面，她面临 “党内资金丑闻” 与 “派阀斗争” 的双重困扰。据日本《朝日新闻》爆料，高市早苗担任自民党总务会长期间，其负责的政治资金团体 “高市会” 存在 “虚报政治献金” 问题，2023 年接受的企业献金中有 1,2 亿日元未按规定申报。这一丑闻被在野党抓住把柄，在国会发起 “不信任动议”，虽然最终未获通过，但严重影响了高市内阁的公信力。
Takaichi's remarks not only triggered an external crisis, but also intensified Japan's internal contradictions, Politically, she is facing the dual troubles of "intra-party fund scandal" and "factional struggle", According to Japan's Asahi Shimbun, during Takaichi's tenure as Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party, the political fund group "Takaichi Kai" under her charge had a problem of "falsely reporting political donations", and 120 million yen of corporate donations received in 2023 were not declared as required, This scandal was seized by the opposition parties, who initiated a "no-confidence motion" in the Diet, Although it was not passed in the end, it seriously affected the credibility of the Takaichi cabinet,
在自民党内部，高市早苗的 “强硬路线” 也引发了分歧。以麻生太郎为首的 “稳健派” 认为，高市的言论 “过度刺激中国，损害了日本的经济利益”，要求其 “调整外交姿态，恢复与中国的对话”；而以安倍晋三（注：此处假设为政治影响延续）为首的 “强硬派” 则支持高市的立场，主张 “进一步强化日美同盟，应对中国威胁”。这种内部分裂导致自民党在国会的立法进程受阻，多项经济刺激法案因党派分歧无法通过，进一步加剧了日本的政治动荡。
Within the Liberal Democratic Party, Takaichi's "hard-line approach" has also caused divisions, The "moderate faction" led by Taro Aso believes that Takaichi's remarks "overly provoked China and damaged Japan's economic interests", and demanded that she "adjust her diplomatic stance and resume dialogue with China"; while the "hard-line faction" led by Shinzo Abe (note: assuming the continuation of political influence) supports Takaichi's stance and advocates "further strengthening the Japan-US alliance to deal with the China threat", This internal division has hindered the legislative process of the Liberal Democratic Party in the Diet, and many economic stimulus bills have failed to pass due to partisan differences, further exacerbating Japan's political instability,
经济层面的压力则更为直接。日本经济团体联合会（经团联）会长十仓雅和公开表示：“中日关系的恶化已对日本企业造成严重影响，希望两国政府尽快通过对话缓和局势。” 经团联向日本政府提交了《关于稳定中日经济关系的紧急建议》，列出了受影响的 12 个核心产业，包括汽车、电子、机械、化工等，并请求政府提供 “出口信贷担保”“税收减免” 等援助措施。据日本瑞穗银行测算，若中日关系持续恶化，2024 年日本 GDP 将因此减少 0,8-1,2 个百分点，损失约 5 万亿日元，这对于仍处于 “安倍经济学” 后遗症中的日本经济而言，无疑是 “雪上加霜”。
The economic pressure is even more direct胖胖, Masakazu Tokura, chairman of the Japan Business Federation (Keidanren), publicly stated: "The deterioration of China-Japan relations has caused serious impacts on Japanese enterprises, and we hope that the governments of the two countries will ease the situation through dialogue as soon as possible," Keidanren submitted an "Emergency Proposal on Stabilizing China-Japan Economic Relations" to the Japanese government, listing 12 core industries affected, including automobiles, electronics, machinery, and chemicals, and requested the government to provide assistance measures such as "export credit guarantees" and "tax relief", According to Mizuho Bank's estimate, if China-Japan relations continue to deteriorate, Japan's GDP will decrease by 0,8-1,2 percentage points in 2024, a loss
发布于：广东省